The coupled models will be run for several scenarios differing in respect to climate change and land-use conditions:

Code Scenario description Climate change data Land-use data
A Baseline Present Present
B Natural reference conditions (present) Present Nat. veg.
C Natural reference conditions (future climate change) Future Nat. veg.
D Future conditions (climate change) Future Present
E Future conditions (land-use change) Present or future Future



The following research questions can be investigted by comparing the modelled abiotic and biotic conditions of the scenarios:

Comparison Research question
A/B What can you expect from local reach-scale restoration given the remaining pressures on larger spatial scales under the present conditions?
B/C Will Climate Change have a major influence on natural reference conditions?
A/D How important is Climate Change for river biota compared to other large-scale pressures (catchment scale land-use and missing source populations?
A/E What will be the effect of future land-use changes on river biota compared to other pressures; will it be possible to compensate for Climate Change?



In the following table, the effect of large scale pressures and Climate Change (CC) as well as Environmental-Change (LUC) is assessed on a scale ranging from o (no effect) to +++ (high effect). These are kind of first draft hypotheses based on expert judgement and open to discussion.

Comparison A/B
Baseline
RefCond (present)
B/C
RefCond (present)
RefCond(CC)
A/D
Baseline
FutureCond (CC)
A/E
Baseline
FutureCond (LUC)
Water quality + o o +
Fine sediment ++ o + +
Channel pattern, width ++ o o +
Flow conditions (velocity and depth at high and low flow) +++ ++ ++ ++
Dispersal / source populations +++ + + ++
Biota in the “receiving reach” +++ + + ++